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China is experiencing a real estate crisis that is similar to Japan’s in the 1990s. The collapse of Evergrande in 2021 and of Country Garden in 2023, two of China’s largest property developers are warning signs of deep troubles in the real estate market. Due to China’s scale the crisis will likely impact the global economy on an unprecedented scale.
To understand the origins and nature of China’s real estate crisis, the report analyses the historical economic backdrop that led to the current situation. We investigate China’s demographic trends, it’s GDP and respective components, trade and debt. We also compare these China’s economic indicators with those of other countries and in particular make parallels with Japan’s economic development from 1970 to 1990 and its subsequent “two lost decades”.
With the broader context at hand, we then examine and anticipate the extent to which the ongoing real estate crisis will develop into a full-blown economic crisis in 2026, and whether it poses a systemic danger to China or other countries. The insights gained from the analysis within the report provides us tools to anticipate China’s possible policy actions for dealing with the crisis and on a wider context, its structural reforms for the coming decades.
The report is a “navigation map” to understand ongoing economic developments in China and its possible geopolitical implications in the context of ongoing trade wars. The “navigation map” will be a useful resource for both the unfolding real-estate crisis which could enter its acute phase in 2026, as well as for China’s economic path in the coming decades.
Typically, top level executives do not have the time to read the detailed report. The executive presentation is targeted to decision makers at institutions, family offices and high net-worth individuals. It provides them a summary of the main findings contained within the report.
For further granularity on each of the important research findings and their impacts on asset markets and the economy, the full report provides the core reference material.
To give a personal context on the full report, Carlos Alegria and Edward Dowd prepared a video where the authors discuss the executive presentation and its main findings. The authors explain the importance of the report and how it provides a detailed understanding of China’s ongoing real estate crisis. It also highlights the economic challenges that China’s economy faces due to its structural characteristics.
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1h 1-on-1 Session
The full report on China’s economy is pointing to the risks of a severe economic crisis, which could have spillover effects around the world. The implications for global assets and investments are far reaching.
Apart from the shorter-term effects of China’s real estate crisis and economic slowdown, China’s, on the longer-term China’s economic model poses a strategic risk for open economies across the globe. Some of these considerations arise from the research undertaken within the report but are not fully explored and discussed within the report due to limitations of the scope of the report.
The private session is aimed to help top level decision makers have adequate information in navigating of upcoming turbulence.
Personal Insights
We are available to give our personal insights into the scenarios that we anticipate could unfold as a consequence of China’s real estate crisis and economic restructuring in the coming decades. The private session is aimed to help top level decision makers have adequate information in navigating of upcoming turbulence.
Among other insights, the analysis contained in the report allowed us to better understand the leverage that the US has upon China in terms of trade disputes, and how China appears to be navigating a fragile economic and political balancing act, which will likely intensify in the coming decades.
By meeting with us on a personal level, you can have a clearer understanding of the dangers ahead, our own personal views and additional factors that are not covered by the report.
We are also available for producing tailored analysis on specific topics that extend beyond the scope of the report.
The flyer below provides a short summary and links to the full report package on the China's economy.
A short preview video can be found below.
The flyer below is a PDF for sharing. It provides links to the product webpage and direct link to the store for purchase.
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Interesting discussion on different topics related to the economy and markets, with a host that asks the right questions.
Edward Dowd warns of a looming U.S. recession and a 40-50% stock market crash. In this rapid-fire chat with Kai Hoffmann, he explains how tariffs might flip inflation into deflation, why housing and AI stocks look fragile, what’s next for the dollar, and why he’s parking cash in short-term Treasuries and gold.
Another interview worth viewing with Greg Hunter.
Ed Dowd explains the outlook we published in our US Economy outlook for 2025 report, and why the scenarios explained within the report appear to be unfolding.
Ed Dowd explains: “What we are going to have going forward is the reversal of deficit government spending, which was juicing the economy with illegals. Some of them got jobs, but a lot of them got benefits. They got housing accommodations. The NGO system was flush with money to facilitate this massive, purposeful logistical operation..
Ed Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.
This interview provides interesting insights into the contents within our report and the US Economy.
This interview was reviewed on an article by Zero Hedge. Link to article.
