China's 2026 Economic Outlook - January 2026

Key insights:
The key insights contained within this report can be divided into two main themes:

1) Ongoing real estate crisis that is a short-term risk that could develop into an acute crisis.
• Real estate starts dropped off a cliff from 2022 to 2025, together with real estate sales, a 70% drop from its peak.
• By 10/2025 real estate buildings under construction were still holding up, having dropped by only about 15% to 20% from its peak in 2022.
• The collapse in land purchases for development and real estate starts point to the crisis deepening in the years ahead, with the possibility of an acute crisis unfolding.
• The housing bubble in China is characterized by massive oversupply and not so much by rising prices.
• China’s ongoing real estate crisis is the start of a decades long restructuring process of the economy.
• Risk of economic crisis starting in 2026.

2) The long-term structural challenges for China.
• Around 2020, China’s working age population started a steep decline which will intensify until 2032.
• Internal consumer demand will be under pressure in the coming decades.
• China needs to rely on exports for keeping its installed capacity running.
• In 2021 China’s GDP was 80% of US GDP, while in 2025 it was only 60%.
• China current situation is comparable to Japan in the 1990s, resulting in “two lost decades” of low economic growth and deflationary environment.

Summary:

China is experiencing a real estate crisis that is similar to Japan’s in the 1990s. The collapse of Evergrande in 2021 and of Country Garden in 2023, two of China’s largest property developers are warning signs of deep troubles in the real estate market. Due to China’s scale the crisis will likely impact the global economy on an unprecedented scale.

To understand the origins and nature of China’s real estate crisis, the report analyses the historical economic backdrop that led to the current situation. We investigate China’s demographic trends, it’s GDP and respective components, trade and debt. We also compare these China’s economic indicators with those of other countries and in particular make parallels with Japan’s economic development from 1970 to 1990 and its subsequent “two lost decades”.

With the broader context at hand, we then examine and anticipate the extent to which the ongoing real estate crisis will develop into a full-blown economic crisis in 2026, and whether it poses a systemic danger to China or other countries. The insights gained from the analysis within the report provides us tools to anticipate China’s possible policy actions for dealing with the crisis and on a wider context, its structural reforms for the coming decades.

The report is a “navigation map” to understand ongoing economic developments in China and its possible geopolitical implications in the context of ongoing trade wars. The “navigation map” will be a useful resource for both the unfolding real-estate crisis which could enter its acute phase in 2026, as well as for China’s economic path in the coming decades.

This report is targeted at a wide range of actors who are exposed to the Chinese economy, which due to its size and volume of global trade could impact the global economy. Below we provide a short list of such interested parties to the report.

Target audience:

• HNWI, family offices, insurance companies or other institutions that manage assets or provide advice on their asset allocation.
• Risk management branches of the different institutions would also benefit from the insights within this report as they could be included into risk management scenarios for credit, market and liquidity risk resulting from the spillover effects from an economic crisis in China.
• Investors or businesses involved with exposure to China which might be unaware of some of the underlying trends and dangers explained within the report.
• Decision makers (C-suite) in corporations that are exposed to the Chinese economy. The report might provide insights into the timing of planning and execution of investment projects.
• Geopolitical analysts. The report provides insights into the Chinese economy that sometimes goes against perceived knowledge or pre-conceptions. By understanding the real economic data relative to the Chinese economy, considerations of strengths or weaknesses in trade wars or developments of new financial systems could be based upon the most accurate information.
• Governmental and non-governmental organizations. Think tanks, industry boards, intelligence organisations could gain deep understanding of China’s economic model and the path of least resistance for China’s future policy actions and their implications for “open” economies.

Buy Now

Report: China's 2026 Economic Outlook
Date: January 2026
"China's emerging economic crisis in 2026"

Contents of the package:
• Full 80-page report on China’s Economic outlook for 2026.
• Executive presentation with key insights from the full report.
• Video where Ed Dowd and Carlos Alegria go through the executive presentation and provide their personal analysis.

Go to Package WebPage