Phinance TechnologiesImportant: After purchasing the product you'll receive a receipt email with the download instructions. In case you don't receive an email, please check your "Spam or Junk" folder before contacting us.
Report:"Better affordability, demographic risks remain"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Sales. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the situation of new home sales in the US, updated until the latest release on August 25th, 2026. The collapse in riskier housing projects is like a canary in a coal mine, giving early warning for the possibility of the already fragile housing market becoming weaker in the months ahead.
We show that the growing divergence between new homes for sale and new homes sold. With homes for sale close to record high levels and continued expected declines in new homes sold, we see continued fragility in the housing market in the months ahead.
The report also investigates home affordability, home prices and the relative indebtedness of US households. We show that US households are not overleveraged when compared to the previous 2008-2009 crisis. On the bright side, we also show that the decline in real house prices since 2025 led to substantial improvements in housing affordability.
The report shows that home affordability for prospective home buyers is the main limiting factor, due to the rise in mortgage rates since late 2021 and relatively high house prices relative to historical standards. To understand under which conditions we could have home affordability return, we explore different economic recession scenarios and their likely impact on mortgage rates.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2026.
Report:"The multi-family housing debacle"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Construction. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the house building situation in the US, updated until the latest release during August 2026. It provides early evidence of a fragile housing market and points to further weakness ahead, particularly in multi-family housing.
We show that building permits for new projects have been declining which means that as the ongoing projects are completed, new projects won’t start and building activity is set to continue declining in the months ahead.
The change in immigration policies and their enforcement by Trump administrations from the 20th of January of 2025 reversed the multi-family housing boom. The report shows that the expansion of ICE infrastructure, increased forced deportations and self-deportations are impacting multi-family housing, particularly in “red” States, but not “blue” States or sanctuary areas.
We also show how home builder publicly traded stocks could be used as early warning for housing market downturns, which are currently flashing signs of weakness for the months ahead.
The report also provides insights into the type of real estate building structures that were most over-extended during latest 2020-2024 boom. On the other hand, insights into the sectors and regions in the US that will drive the subsequent recovery are identified.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2026.
Typically, top level executives do not have the time to read the detailed reports.
The executive presentation is targeted to decision makers at institutions, family offices and high net-worth individuals. It provides them a summary of the main findings within the real estate reports and their implications for business strategy.
For further granularity on each of the important research findings and their impacts on asset markets and the economy, the individual real estate reports contained within the package provide the core reference material.
The package includes a video that goes through the presentation and its main findings where Carlos Alegria navigates through the main findings within each of the reports and provides his personal analysis and views. He explains, based upon the available data, the current situation of the housing market and the outlook for the months ahead.
The reports included within the real estate package point to continued weakness in the US housing market in the months ahead. Consequently, its implications should be taken into consideration by top decision makers at a variety of institutions.
The full real estate package provides more than an overview of the US real estate market, it provides a navigation map for the likely crisis with dashboards for our clients to have ongoing updates, gain awareness of the underlying drivers of the current crisis, but also the conditions required for a subsequent recovery and sectors or areas where opportunities are likely to arise.
All Sales are final and non-refundable
Package price: $600 + Tax (23%)
Important: After purchasing the product you'll receive a receipt email with the download instructions. In case you don't receive an email, please check your "Spam or Junk" folder before contacting us.
1h 1-on-1 Session
Our US real Estate Market package is pointing to continued weakness in the housing market in the months ahead. It reflects one of the main risks we anticipated in our US Economy Outlook for 2026 where outlined the most important underlying risks that could lead to a severe recession in the US. The implications could be profound for asset markets and investments.
Even though we do our best in explaining the current economic situation and expected future risks, the unfolding of an economic crisis is a dynamic process, with a lot of twists and turns.
The private session is aimed to help top level decision makers have adequate information in navigating of upcoming turbulence.
Personal Insights
The US real Estate Market package is a comprehensive analysis into the most important (macro) factors that are driving the housing market in the US.
The reports included within the package point to a continuation of weakness in the housing market in the months ahead. Our analysis does not anticipate a full-blown 2008-style systemic crisis to unfold due to the weakness in the real estate market alone, but a full-blown crisis is a possibility if other major risk factors materialize simultaneously.
To dig deeper into the subject, we are available to give our personal insights into the scenarios that we anticipate could unfold during 2026 and 2027 both on the real estate market or the overall US economy.
By meeting with us on a personal level, you can have a clearer understanding of the dangers ahead, our own personal views and additional factors that are not covered by the report.
The flyer below provides a 1-page summary and links to the US Real Estate Market package.
A short preview video can be found below.
The flyer below is a PDF for sharing. It provides links to the product webpage and direct link to the store for purchase.
Important: After purchasing the product you'll receive a receipt email with the download instructions. In case you don't receive an email, please check your "Spam or Junk" folder before contacting us.
