Phinance TechnologiesImportant: After purchasing the product you'll receive a receipt email with the download instructions. In case you don't receive an email, please check your "Spam or Junk" folder before contacting us.
Report:"The New Home Sales Conundrum"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Sales. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the situation of new home sales in the US, updated until the latest release on July 25th, 2025. The collapse in riskier housing projects is like a canary in a coal mine, giving early warning for the possibility of the already fragile housing market becoming weaker in the months ahead.
We show that the growing divergence between new homes for sale and new homes sold. With homes for sale close to record high levels and continued expected declines in new homes sold, we see ominous signs of the possibility of a full-blown housing crisis.
The report also investigates home affordability, home prices and the relative indebtedness of US households. We show that US households are not overleveraged when compared to the previous 2008-2009 crisis.
We also show that home affordability for prospective home buyers is the main limiting factor, due to the rise in mortgage rates since late 2021 and relatively high house prices relative to historical standards. To understand under which conditions we could have home affordability return, we explore different economic recession scenarios and their likely impact on mortgage rates.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025.
Report:"The multi-family housing debacle"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Construction. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the house building situation in the US, updated until the latest release during July 2025. It provides early evidence of a fragile housing market and points to further weakness ahead, possibly resulting in a full-blown crisis.
We show that building permits for new projects have been declining which means that as the ongoing projects are completed, new projects won’t start and building activity will decline substantially in the months ahead.
We also show how home builder publicly traded stocks could be used as early warning for housing market downturns, which are currently flashing danger signs for the months ahead.
The report also provides insights into the type of real estate building structures that are most over-extended, and which are likely to be most affected by the crisis. We also provide insights into the sectors that will drive the subsequent recovery.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025.
Report:"Cracks in the real estate market"
In this report we update our New Tenant Rent analysis with the latest datapoint (for Q2-2025) released by
the BLS on the 23rd of July 2025. We investigate the implications of the latest data for house rent inflation, overall CPI, and its relationship with housing prices.
We conclude that the CPI will be under downward pressure from future disinflation in Rents and Shelter costs, which represent about 36% the overall CPI basket. Our report stands against general market expectations of higher inflation ahead. We also investigate the likely implications for Treasury yields, which we expect to drop in the months ahead.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025.
Typically, top level executives do not have the time to read the detailed reports.
The executive presentation is targeted to decision makers at institutions, family offices and high net-worth individuals. It provides them a summary of the main findings within the report and their implications to their businesses and assets.
For further granularity on each of the important research findings and their impacts on asset markets and the economy, the individual real estate reports contained within the package provide the core reference material.
The package includes a video that goes through the presentation and its main findings where Carlos Alegria and Edward Dowd put together the findings in each of the reports and give their analysis and personal views. The authors explain the current situation of the housing market and the outlook for the months ahead.
The reports included within the real estate package point to a high risk of a housing market crisis unfolding in the months ahead, being clearly noticeable by the fall of 2025. Consequently, its implications should be taken into consideration by top decision makers at a variety of institutions. The full real estate package provides more than an overview of the US real estate market, it provides a navigation map for the likely crisis with dashboards for our clients to have ongoing updates, the underlying drivers of the crisis and also the conditions required for a subsequent recovery.
All Sales are final and non-refundable
Package price: $699 + Tax
Important: After purchasing the product you'll receive a receipt email with the download instructions. In case you don't receive an email, please check your "Spam or Junk" folder before contacting us.
1h 1-on-1 Session
Our US real Estate Market package is pointing to serious risks of a housing market crisis in the months ahead. It reflects one of the main risks we anticipated in our US Economy Outlook for 2025 where we warned of serious risks of a severe recession starting in 2025. The implications are profound for asset markets and investments.
Even though we do our best in explaining the current economic situation and expected future risks, the unfolding of an economic crisis is dynamic with a lot of twists and turns.
The private session is aimed to help top level decision makers have adequate information in navigating of upcoming turbulence.
Personal Insights
The US real Estate Market package is a comprehensive analysis into the most important factors that are driving the housing market in the US.
The reports included within the package point to a high risk of a housing market crisis unfolding in the months ahead, being clearly noticeable by the fall of 2025.
To dig deeper into the subject, we are available to give our personal insights into the scenarios that we anticipate could unfold during 2025 both on the real estate market or the overall US economy.
By meeting with us on a personal level, you can have a clearer understanding of the dangers ahead, our own personal views and additional factors that are not covered by the report.
The flyer below provides a 1-page summary and links to the US Real Estate Market package.
A short preview video can be found below.
The flyer below is a PDF for sharing. It provides links to the product webpage and direct link to the store for purchase.
Important: After purchasing the product you'll receive a receipt email with the download instructions. In case you don't receive an email, please check your "Spam or Junk" folder before contacting us.
Interesting discussion on different topics related to the economy and markets, with a host that asks the right questions.
Edward Dowd warns of a looming U.S. recession and a 40-50% stock market crash. In this rapid-fire chat with Kai Hoffmann, he explains how tariffs might flip inflation into deflation, why housing and AI stocks look fragile, what’s next for the dollar, and why he’s parking cash in short-term Treasuries and gold.
Another interview worth viewing with Greg Hunter.
Ed Dowd explains the outlook we published in our US Economy outlook for 2025 report, and why the scenarios explained within the report appear to be unfolding.
Ed Dowd explains: “What we are going to have going forward is the reversal of deficit government spending, which was juicing the economy with illegals. Some of them got jobs, but a lot of them got benefits. They got housing accommodations. The NGO system was flush with money to facilitate this massive, purposeful logistical operation..
Ed Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.
This interview provides interesting insights into the contents within our report and the US Economy.
This interview was reviewed on an article by Zero Hedge. Link to article.
