Phinance Technologies
Report:"Better affordability, demographic risks remain"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Sales. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the situation of new home sales in the US, updated until the latest release on August 25th, 2026. The collapse in riskier housing projects is like a canary in a coal mine, giving early warning for the possibility of the already fragile housing market becoming weaker in the months ahead.
We show that the growing divergence between new homes for sale and new homes sold. With homes for sale close to record high levels and continued expected declines in new homes sold, we see continued fragility in the housing market in the months ahead.
The report also investigates home affordability, home prices and the relative indebtedness of US households. We show that US households are not overleveraged when compared to the previous 2008-2009 crisis. On the bright side, we also show that the decline in real house prices since 2025 led to substantial improvements in housing affordability.
The report shows that home affordability for prospective home buyers is the main limiting factor, due to the rise in mortgage rates since late 2021 and relatively high house prices relative to historical standards. To understand under which conditions we could have home affordability return, we explore different economic recession scenarios and their likely impact on mortgage rates.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2026.
Report:"The multi-family housing debacle"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Construction. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the house building situation in the US, updated until the latest release during August 2026. It provides early evidence of a fragile housing market and points to further weakness ahead, particularly in multi-family housing.
We show that building permits for new projects have been declining which means that as the ongoing projects are completed, new projects won’t start and building activity is set to continue declining in the months ahead.
The change in immigration policies and their enforcement by Trump administrations from the 20th of January of 2025 reversed the multi-family housing boom. The report shows that the expansion of ICE infrastructure, increased forced deportations and self-deportations are impacting multi-family housing, particularly in “red” States, but not “blue” States or sanctuary areas.
We also show how home builder publicly traded stocks could be used as early warning for housing market downturns, which are currently flashing signs of weakness for the months ahead.
The report also provides insights into the type of real estate building structures that were most over-extended during latest 2020-2024 boom. On the other hand, insights into the sectors and regions in the US that will drive the subsequent recovery are identified.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2026.
Report:"The New Home Sales Conundrum"
Report:"The multi-family housing debacle"
Report:"Cracks in the real estate market"
