Update Date: 2025-06-09.
New Residential Construction Analysis - June 2025 Update.
Report:"The multi-family housing debacle"
Within the report you'll discover:
- How the latest (2020-2024) real-estate boom was driven by large multi-family building structures.
- Why building activity is set to decline in the coming months, with impact on employment and economic activity.
- Early signs of a brewing housing market crisis.
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Construction. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the house building situation in the US, updated until the latest release during May 2025. It provides early evidence of a fragile housing market and points to further weakness ahead, possibly resulting in a full-blown crisis.
We show that building permits for new projects have been declining which means that as the ongoing projects are completed, new projects won’t start and building activity will decline substantially in the months ahead.
We also show how home builder publicly traded stocks could be used as early warning for housing market downturns, which are currently flashing danger signs for the months ahead.
The report also provides insights into the type of real estate building structures that are most over-extended, and which are likely to be most affected by the crisis. We also provide insights into the sectors that will drive the subsequent recovery.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025.