Phinance Technologies
Report:"The New Home Sales Conundrum"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Sales. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the situation of new home sales in the US, updated until the latest release on June 25th, 2025. The collapse in riskier housing projects is like a canary in a coal mine, giving early warning for the possibility of the already fragile housing market becoming weaker in the months ahead.
We show that the growing divergence between new homes for sale and new homes sold. With homes for sale close to record high levels and continued expected declines in new homes sold, we see ominous signs of the possibility of a full-blown housing crisis.
The report also investigates home affordability, home prices and the relative indebtedness of US households. We show that US households are not overleveraged when compared to the previous 2008-2009 crisis.
We also show that home affordability for prospective home buyers is the main limiting factor, due to the rise in mortgage rates since late 2021 and relatively high house prices relative to historical standards. To understand under which conditions we could have home affordability return, we explore different economic recession scenarios and their likely impact on mortgage rates.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025.
Report:"The multi-family housing debacle"
This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Construction. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the house building situation in the US, updated until the latest release during May 2025. It provides early evidence of a fragile housing market and points to further weakness ahead, possibly resulting in a full-blown crisis.
We show that building permits for new projects have been declining which means that as the ongoing projects are completed, new projects won’t start and building activity will decline substantially in the months ahead.
We also show how home builder publicly traded stocks could be used as early warning for housing market downturns, which are currently flashing danger signs for the months ahead.
The report also provides insights into the type of real estate building structures that are most over-extended, and which are likely to be most affected by the crisis. We also provide insights into the sectors that will drive the subsequent recovery.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025.
Report:"Cracks in the real estate market"
This report confirms our findings from our prior report that the real estate market was already showing cracks in Q4-2024 which intensified in Q1-2025.
In this report we update our New Tenant Rent analysis with the latest data release for Q1-2025. We investigate the implications of the latest data for house rent inflation, overall CPI, and its relationship with housing prices.
We conclude that the CPI will be under downward pressure from future disinflation in Rents and Shelter costs, which represent about 36% the overall CPI basket. Our report stands against general market expectations of higher inflation ahead. We also investigate the likely implications for Treasury yields, which we expect to drop in the months ahead.
We believe the analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025.
Edward Dowd warns of a looming U.S. recession and a 40-50% stock market crash. In this rapid-fire chat with Kai Hoffmann, he explains how tariffs might flip inflation into deflation, why housing and AI stocks look fragile, what’s next for the dollar, and why he’s parking cash in short-term Treasuries and gold.
Another interview worth viewing with Greg Hunter.
Ed Dowd explains the outlook we published in our US Economy outlook for 2025 report, and why the scenarios explained within the report appear to be unfolding.
Ed Dowd explains: “What we are going to have going forward is the reversal of deficit government spending, which was juicing the economy with illegals. Some of them got jobs, but a lot of them got benefits. They got housing accommodations. The NGO system was flush with money to facilitate this massive, purposeful logistical operation..
Ed Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.
This interview provides interesting insights into the contents within our report and the US Economy.
This interview was reviewed on an article by Zero Hedge. Link to article.
