Phinance Technologies

Topic: Inflation Research

Having warned in 2021 and 2022 that persistent inflation going forward was a real risk, after the extreme policy actions by the Fed, from 2023, the tightening of monetary policy and the decline in M2 led us to believe that disinflationary forces were the main risk.
However, we also believe that in the longer-term, inflation will the the greatest risk facing investors portfolios. Investors will be riding an inflation roller coaster, characterised by periods of high inflation interlaced with periods of disinflation and some short episodes deflationary scares.

The energy shock that started in March 2026, resulting from the closure of the strait of Hormuz is an example of an extra confounding factor to the already complex problem of getting a handle on inflation. If energy shocks are severe or long lasting, they could lead to recessions and monetary policy intervention, but if short lived, these energy shocks will only become a confounder towards discovering real underlying inflation trends.

Inflation monitoring tools

Inflation reports

Inflation expectations (mid-term, 6m to 15m).
Free report: EII models for 1-year inflation expectations.

Short-term inflation model (oil shocks, etc).
Free research note: Inflation - Short-term energy model

Short-term inflation posts.
Example: Inflation - Impact of the Hormuz (Iran) oil shock. Date 2026-4-2

Inflation reports (with scenarios).

Central bank monitoring reports.

Ongoing inflation monitoring dashboards...

Inflation Summary dashboards.

Short-term CPI forecast dashboards.

1-year Inflation expectations dashboards (EIIs).

Monetary variables.

Monetary: The Fed balance sheet.

Tailored research

We also produce tailored research on inflation which are designed to answer particular questions. If you have such questions and need us to investigate, please contact us through our support email: support@phinancetechnologies.com.

Inflation monitoring

Basic inflation statistics

The table summarizes the different variables of interest that we believe are the most relevant to estimate current inflation.It shows current inflation measures, the CPI, instantaneous CPI (3m annualized) and other important estimates such as Unit Labor Costs and core-CPI (where food and energy components are removed).

Basic monetary statistics

This section shows the evolution of the monetary measures (variables) that are the main drivers of inflation on a macro scale, namely, the velocity of money (V) and the M2 money supply.
While the velocity of money (V) impacts inflation on a shorter timescale when economic shocks occur, changes in the money aggregate (M2) impact inflation on a larger time-scale.

Bond yields and real yields

The table below shows how inflation compares with nominal US treasury bond yields. Real interest rates can be understood as reflecting the rate of temporal preference for current goods over future goods. For investments, real interest rates are calculated as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate.