Phinance Technologies

In this episode we discuss the latest June 2025 CPI (inflation) release and how it is understood in historical context. We discuss seasonal effects in different inflation components and how that can confound inflation reports.
We discuss how the inflation outlook points to disinflation in the months ahead, led by housing disinflation as we explain in our new tenant rent report which points to slowing rent inflation for the coming months, which is a driving force that we expect will bring CPI below 2% in the near future.
In the second part we discuss what appears to be a stock market bubble, which is eerily similar to the .com bubble in 2000. We advert that stocks appear to be overvalued relative to bonds and that complacency has set in.
We also warn of the popping of the stock bubble together with a real estate crisis could lead to a serious recession.

In this episode we talk about inflation and what appears to be the biggest asymmetric trade opportunity at the moment: fixed income. Our inflation outlook is explained in our new tenant rent report which points to slowing rent inflation for the coming months, which is a driving force that we expect will bring CPI below 2% in the near future.
On the short term, the Israel-Iran hostilities and the rise in oil price from 60$ a barrel to above 70$ could lead to a short-lived rise in inflation. On a medium term, the rise in oil prices, if sustained, will be deflationary for the economy, which will have a negative impact on overall demand. The volatility in oil prices as a reaction to the developments of the conflict will likely lead to confounding inflation numbers, which will need to be scrutinized to understand the real underlying trend.
We also discuss US real estate and our newly released report which points to housing weakness being led by multi-family house building. Our US real estate reports corroborate our report US Economy outlook for 2025, published in January 2025, which warns of the unwinding of the illegal immigration policies during 2020-2024 being a risk for the US real estate market in 2025 and 2026.

In this episode we discuss our report on the impact of the US Trade Tariff executive order signed by President Trump on the 2nd of April 2025.
On the short term, the trade tariffs will be akin to a tax on consumers or corporations, depending on who bears the cost for the price increases. This will likely lead to deflationary conditions due to the impact on the velocity of money, adding to the structural economic challenges that the US is already facing.
On the long term, the event was likely a landmark event in the history of the current century. The executive order is like the first piece of a domino that is going to lead to a multi-year process (or multi-decade), a new path, a new way of doing business.

In this episode we discuss the US Employment Surveys released by the BLS on the 7th of March 2025. The report was a mixed bag that, in our view, shows that employment has probably peaked and is set to decelerate in the months ahead.
Treasury yields for the 10y bond have been declining since January 2025 anticipating further weakness in the economy which anticipate weakness in the job market. We expect to see falls in employment in the months ahead, as we lay out in our US Economy report.

In this episode we analyze the discrepancies between the US Employment Surveys, namely the Establishment and Household. These discrepancies have been confounding economists since 2022 to the end of 2024. The economy has been characterized by robust real GDP growth, but many US households appear to be struggling.

Interesting discussion on different topics related to the economy and markets, with a host that asks the right questions.

Edward Dowd warns of a looming U.S. recession and a 40-50% stock market crash. In this rapid-fire chat with Kai Hoffmann, he explains how tariffs might flip inflation into deflation, why housing and AI stocks look fragile, what’s next for the dollar, and why he’s parking cash in short-term Treasuries and gold.

Another interview worth viewing with Greg Hunter.

Ed Dowd explains the outlook we published in our US Economy outlook for 2025 report, and why the scenarios explained within the report appear to be unfolding.

Ed Dowd explains: “What we are going to have going forward is the reversal of deficit government spending, which was juicing the economy with illegals. Some of them got jobs, but a lot of them got benefits. They got housing accommodations. The NGO system was flush with money to facilitate this massive, purposeful logistical operation..

Ed Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.

This interview provides interesting insights into the contents within our report and the US Economy.

This interview was reviewed on an article by Zero Hedge. Link to article.