February 2024
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The data is based upon weekly deaths data from eurostat spanning from 2010 to 2023. For some countries (such as Germany) data is unavailable; and for others it is only available from 2015 onwards.
Countries: AT, BE, BG, CZ, DK, DE, EL (Greece), ES, FR, IT, HU, NL, PL, PT, RO, FI, SE, NO.
Source for Weekly Deaths (Eurostat): Eurostat table: Deaths by week, sex and 5-year age group.
Source for Vaccination data: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
Source for Population Estimates (Eurostat and UN): Eurostat table: Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection.
We show the analysis of excess mortality using the different methodologies described in our methodology papers.These papers illustrate the pitfalls and advantages of using the different calculation methods for excess mortality.
In summary, using method 1, excess deaths for 2020, 2021, and 2022 are computed by subtracting the N-year pre-pandemic average deaths (typically 3 to 5 years) from actual deaths in the Covid-19 pandemic years. This method is the one most widely used for estimating excess deaths, including by countries' statistical offices. However, this method has obvious pitfalls as the measurement of excess deaths is highly sensitive to the baseline for estimating "normal" deaths. By using a prior average of the number of deaths as a baseline, biases are easily introduced due to increasing or decreasing population over time. When the population is increasing, excess deaths are over-estimated while when populations are decreasing they tend to be under-estimated.
Method 2 solves some of these problems by computing changes in death rates relative to a given baseline and, as shown in our methodology papers, are much more reliable for estimating excess mortality.
The chart below shows the actual deaths (or death rate) versus the projected estimates when using the different methodologies described in our methodology papers.
The user can select the calculation method, age group and country. 2023 deaths or death rates are annualised estimates using a linear model.
The chart below shows the excess mortality for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 (either excess deaths or excess death rates) for a given age group.
The plot allows the user to select the desired methodology, country and age group. 2023 deaths or death rates are annualised estimates using a linear model.
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