November 2023
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The data is based upon weekly deaths data from eurostat spanning from 2010 to 2023. For Germany data is only available for certain selected age groups.
Countries: DE (Germany)
Source for Weekly Deaths (Eurostat): Eurostat table: Deaths by week, sex and 5-year age group.
Source for Vaccination data: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
Source for Population Estimates (Eurostat and UN): Eurostat table: Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection.
Comment on the available data and its limitations.
The data on excess deaths and vaccination has several limitations that one should be aware of when analysing the charts below. Unlike the data from Eurostat for the majority of European countries), the data for weekly deaths in the Germany is only available in older age groups, namely (40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80+ and Total). Any analysis of the data does not allow us to observe the excess mortality in younger age groups with sufficient detail.
Additionally, the European CDPC data on vaccination for Germany is limited to the whole population. This poses a problem as we are unable to show excess deaths versus vaccination rates for different age groups.
In the charts below, we can also show the excess deaths age groups compared to total vaccinations administered, in the following way:
| Excess Deaths Age Group | Vaccination Age Group |
|---|---|
| 40-49 | Total |
| 50-59 | Total |
| 60-69 | Total |
| 70-79 | Total |
| 80+ | Total |
| Total | Total |
In order to estimate weekly excess mortality we perform a 2-step approach to estimate the baseline deaths. The first step is by estimating the trend in death rates using annual data as described in our methodology papers, while using method 2C.
The second step is to estimate weekly excess deaths by comparing deaths or death rates in a given week with the average death rate, which is computed using the average weekly frequency of deaths over a period of N-years (typically 5 to 10 years depending on the data availability). By using both methods in conjunction we obtain a trend adjusted and week of year adjusted estimate for excess mortality.
Our analysis computes both excess death rates and excess deaths, which are obtained by multiplying the excess death rates with population estimates for the given year.
Weekly data provides a granularity that allows us to investigate the impact of immediate vaccination deaths, lockdowns, or other effects, on excess mortality.
The following chart shows the analysis of excess mortality for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, for different age groups. The Covid-19 vaccinations data (right hand scale) refers to the total accumulated doses for 2021 and 2022, as a percentage of the total population.
Please be aware that for Germany, the vaccination data is not broken down by age group as mentioned before.
The user can specify the method for estimating excess mortality.
The following chart allows the user to compare the trends in excess mortality during 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, for the different age groups.
This chart is particularly interesting for investigating excess mortality for older versus younger individuals as the pandemic evolved. In Germany, Covid-19 vaccination started to be rolled out in early 2021 and accelerated in April 2021. Vaccine penetration rates achieved high penetration in the population by July, with 3rd doses starting in the autumn.
The interactive chart allows the user can specify the year for evaluating the excess deaths.
PHINANCE TECHNOLOGIES