US Disability Data

Part 3 - Relationship with Vaccine uptake

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Update Date: November - 2022

Data:

Country: USA

Disabilities data

Period: Monthly data from 2008 onwards.

Data Source (BLS): U.S. Department of Labor Disability Statistics Resources.

Link to the latest data release: Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status.

Vaccination data

Source for Vaccination data (CDC): COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States.

Source for Population Estimates (UN - Population division): UN table: Population estimates.

Increase in disabilities vs Vaccine doses

Period: 2021/2 to 2022/11

This section analyses the relationship between the Covid-19 vaccine rollout and the increase in disabilities that started around 2/2021. We perform the analysis first for the Civilian Labor Force aged 16-64 and afterwards for the 65+ age group.

The Vaccination doses refer to the total vaccination doses as a percentage of the respective age group population. The vaccination age groups were 19-64 and 65+ as these were the closest age cohorts we could obtain from the CDC vaccination data, to match the BLS disability age cohorts.

Increase in disabilities in the Civilian Labor Force (16-64) vs Vaccine uptake

The following charts illustrate the relationship between the increase in the disability rate in the Civilian Labor Force (16-64) and the Covid-19 vaccinations.

The chart on the left shows the evolution of the disability rate from 2008 to 11/2022 (left axis) with the vaccination data superimposed (right scale). This chart shows the change in disabilities, which started around 2/2021 and accelerated from 5/2021, in a wider context. When comparing with the vaccination data, the results are compelling.

The chart on the right shows the correlation between the rise in the disability rate since 2/2021 with the vaccination data. The regression R2 is close to 90% which is evidence for a strong relationship. We must always consider other external factors that might explain the rise in disabilities and which are also correlated to the vaccination data. This is usually stated as "correlation is not causation". However, in the absence of other explanatory factors, and strong medical evidence of the vaccines causing injuries and deaths, one must consider the relationship seriously.
Additionally, we realise that performing the correlation of cumulative time series is misleading and the R2 should not be taken as an indication of establishing a statistically significant relationship as both time series have autocorrelation.

Increase in disabilities in Civilian Labor Force (16-64) vs vaccine doses

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Increase in disabilities in the Civilian Labor Force (65+) vs Vaccine uptake

The following charts illustrate the relationship between the increase in the disability rate in the Civilian Labor Force (65+) and the Covid-19 vaccinations.

The chart on the left shows the evolution of the disability rate from 2008 to 11/2022 (left axis) with the vaccination data superimposed (right scale). This chart shows the change in disabilities, which started around 2/2021 and accelerated from 5/2021, in a wider context.

The chart on the right shows the correlation between the rise in the disability rate since 2/2021 with the vaccination data. The regression R2 is close to 57% which is shows a clear relationship, albeit weaker than the one found for the 16-64 age cohort.

Increase in disabilities in Civilian Labor Force (65+) vs vaccine doses

Observations

• There seems to be clear evidence of a strong relationship between the Covid-19 vaccination rollout and increases in disability rates.
• The effect is stronger in the younger age group (16-64) as they have a low base rate of disabilities, and factors that might be detrimental to individuals' health are most noticeable in these individuals.