November 2023
Ireland supplies very limited weekly deaths data to Eurostat, which is not enough to perform a meaningful analysis of excess mortality. Consequently, the data we use is based upon quarterly deaths data from the Irish Central Statistics Office, spanning from 1960 to Q1-2023 (as of November 2023).
Countries: IE (Ireland)
Source for Quarterly Deaths (Ireland - Central Statistics Office): Data file: Quarterly deaths, sex and age group.
Source for Vaccination data: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
Source for Population Estimates (Eurostat and UN): Eurostat table: Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection.
Comment on the available data and its limitations.
The data on excess deaths and vaccination has several limitations that one should be aware of when analysing the charts below. Unlike the data from Eurostat which is weekly, the data presented here is quarterly.
Additionally, the European CDPC data on vaccination for Ireland has different age groups from the ones available in the mortality data. This results in a slight mismatch when showing excess deaths versus vaccination rates for different age groups.
In the charts below, we show the excess deaths age groups compared to vaccinations administered, in the following way:
| Excess Deaths Age Group | Vaccination Age Group |
|---|---|
| 1-4 | 0-4 |
| 5-14 | 5-14 |
| 15-24 | 15-24 |
| 25-34 | 25-49 |
| 35-44 | 25-49 |
| 45-54 | 50-59 |
| 55-64 | 60-69 |
| 65-74 | 70-79 |
| 75+ | 80+ |
| Total | Total |
In order to estimate weekly excess mortality we perform a 2-step approach to estimate the baseline deaths. The first step is by estimating the trend in death rates using annual data as described in our methodology papers, while using method 2C, using the period 2010-2019.
After detrending the data, the second step is to estimate the seasonal adjustment. We do so by estimating the average detrended death rates in the different quarters, and then we subtracted these averages from the original death rate time series. By using both methods in conjunction we obtain a trend adjusted and seasonality-adjusted estimate for excess mortality.
The following chart shows the quarterly (annualised) death rate from 2010 to 2023, for different age groups. The Covid-19 vaccinations data (right hand scale) refers to the total accumulated doses at the end of each quarter, as a percentage of the respective age group population.
Note that in this chart the time series refers to the death rates computed by dividing the deaths in a given quarter by the respective age group population, without seasonal adjustment.
The chart is interactive and the user can specify the age group.
The following chart allows the user to visualise the annualised quarterly excess death rate during 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, for the different age groups. The individual doses of the vaccination rollout are shown.
This chart is particularly interesting to visualise excess mortality pre- and post- vaccination .
The interactive chart allows the user to specify the age group.
PHINANCE TECHNOLOGIES