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Baseline Numbers - Full time employed population


The BLS computes absence rates and lost worktime rates for full time workers. Consequently, in order to have an idea of the denominator for the calculation we plot below the baseline numbers for the BLS full time workers, for different age cohorts. The chart on the left refers to ages 16 and above, the chart in the middle shows the prime workers aged 25 to 54, and the chart on the right refers to older workers aged 55 and above. These plots allow us to have a sense of the absolute magnitude of the effects that we are going to analyse in this study.

plot_FullTimeWorkers_16p
plot_FullTimeWorkers_25_54
plot_FullTimeWorkers_55p
We can observe that:
- The number of full time workers in the US, aged 16+, rose from about 100 million in 2002 to 120 million in 2022 - The rise in full time workers from 2002 to 2022 was mainly due to the rise in older workers (aged 55+), which rose from about 13million in 2002 to 25 million in 2022. - The number of full time workers in the US, aged 25 to 54, remained relatively stable from 2002 (78 million) to 2022 (82 million).



Baseline Numbers - Absence and Lost Worktime rates, 25-54

In this section we show the baseline for absence rates for the 25 to 54 age cohort only, as it is the most representative for the population of full time workers in the US. We first show the variation in absence rates by cause, and later by gender. These plots allow us to have an idea of the different effects that need to be taken into consideration when reading into our analysis further below.


Total Absence rates (Men + Women) by cause

The BLS annual average absence data separates the cause of absence the following way:
Illness or Injury: own illness, injury, or medical problems.
Other: other family or personal obligations; civic or military duty; and maternity or paternity leave.
Total = (Illness or Injury) + (Other)
Excluded are situations in which work was missed due to vacation or personal days, holiday, labour dispute, and other reasons.

plot_BLSAbsences_byCause

- We can observe that there was a general declining trend in total absence rates from 2002 to 2019. This was driven by the decline in absence rates due to illness or injury, as the rate of other causes of absence remained almost constant throughout the period.
- Absence rates due to illness or injury dropped from about 2.5% in 2002 to 1.8% in 2019. Absence rates due to other causes remained constant at 1% throughout the period.
- From 2020, absence rates due to illness and injury rose substantially, in particular in 2021 and 2022, while absence rates for other causes remained the same.



Absence and Lost Worktime rates due to illness or injury, by gender

As we have established in the previous chart that the main driver for changes in absence rates from 2002 to 2022 was illness and injury, we will now explore the behaviour of absence rates and lost worktime rates for different genders, due to illness and injury only.
The chart on the left shows absence rates due to illness or injury, for workers aged 25 to 54, for men, women and total. The chart on the right plots the equivalent data for lost worktime rates.

plot_BLSAbsences_byGender
plot_BLSLostWorktime_byGender

- We can observe that the declining trend in absence rates from illness or injury from 2002 to 2019 was similar in both men and women.
- Absence rates due to illness or injury in women are about 1.5 times those of men.
- Similar behaviour is observed in lost worktime rates, with declining rates from 2002 to 2019 and a sudden and sharpe rise from 2020 to 2022.







Go to Part 2 - Analysis of Absence rates
Go to Part 3 - Analysis of Lost Worktime rates