US - absence rates and lost worktime data
Part 2 - Analysis of Absence rates
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Update Date: February - 2024
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Data:
Country: USA
Period: Yearly data from 2002 onwards.
Data Source (BLS):
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Link to the latest data release:
HOUSEHOLD DATA ANNUAL AVERAGES. Table 46: Absences from work of employed full-time wage and salary workers by age, sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity.
Absences are defined as instances when persons who usually work 35 or more hours a week worked less than 35 hours during the reference week for one of the following reasons: Own illness, injury, or medical problems; child-care problems; other family or personal obligations; civic or military duty; and maternity or paternity leave. Excluded are situations in which work was missed due to vacation or personal days, holiday, labour dispute, and other reasons. For multiple jobholders, absence data refer only to work missed at their main jobs. The absence rate is the ratio of workers with absences to total full-time wage and salary employment.
Lost Worktime is defined as hours absent as a percentage of hours usually worked.
Overview of the BLS absence rates analysis
This part provides a detailed examination of the changes in absence rates that occurred from 2020 onwards. In particular, we analyse the deviation in absence rates from the 2002-2019 pre-pandemic trend, both in absolute and relative terms. We perform the analysis all full time workers, aged 16 and over. We perform the analysis for Men, Women and the Total number of workers (Total = Men + Women).
We first analyse the longer term trends in absence rates from 2002 to 2019 (the pre-pandemic period) so that we can establish a baseline for what can be considered "normal" or "expected" in variations and the historical trend in absence rates. We then detrend the changes in absence rates and analyse the remaining residuals, which are deviations from trend. For 2020 onwards, we use the forward projection of the 2002-2019 trend in absence rates.
The second part of the analysis consists in measuring the changes in absence rates relative to the baseline 2019 absence rate (pre-pandemic). We measure the changes in absence rates in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 relative to the 2019 baseline. This provides a less sophisticated but easier to understand measurement of the changes in absence rates since 2020.
Absence Rates, ages 16 and older, (Deviation from 2002-2019 trend)
In this section we analyse changes in absence rates (total) relative to its linear trend spanning from 2002 to 2019 (the pre-pandemic period). To normalise the changes in absence rates from 2020 onwards relative to the baseline trend, we use as a volatility metric, the standard deviation of the deviations from trend (residuals) for the period 2002 to 2019.
Absence Rates and 2002-2019 trend, ages 16 and older
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We observe a declining trend in absence rates from illness and injury from 2002 to 2019, for both men and women.
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From 2020 to 2022, absence rates increase in each consecutive year, with the largest rise occurring in 2022.
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In 2023 absence rates dropped to similar levels seen in 2020.
Absence Rates, 16 and older, absolute deviation from trend
- When looking at the absolute deviation from trend (residuals) in absence rates from injury or illness, we observe that the absolute deviation from 2002 to 2019 trend in absence rates varied between -0.2% to 0.2% from 2002 to 2019.
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From 2020 we see an increased deviation from trend in each consecutive year. In 2022, the deviation from trend was about 0.8% in absolute terms. In 2023 it dropped to 0.35%.
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The deviation from trend in 2022 was larger for women (1%) than for men (0.78%), indicating that, in absolute terms, women experienced a slightly larger rise in absence rates than men, when compared to the pre-pandemic trendline. In 2023 0.52% and 0.3%
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In 2023 the deviation from trend was 0.52% for women and 0.3% men, indicating that, in absolute terms, women continue experiencing a slightly larger rise in absence rates compared to men.
Absence Rates, 16 and older, % and normalised (Z-Score) deviation from trend
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In relative terms, the deviation from trend peaked in 2022 at 45%, for full time workers aged 16 and over.
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In 2023, the deviation from trend dropped and was about 20% in relative terms.
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Even though the absolute deviation from trend was greater in Women (1%) than Men (0.78%), in relative terms the opposite was true, due to women's baseline absence rates being roughly double those of men.
- When looking at the normalised deviation from trend in absence rates, we observe that they rose above 6 by 2021. This is a strong signal.
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When looking at the normalized (Z-Score) deviation from 2002 to 2019 trend in absence rates ranged between -2 to +2 from 2002 to 2019.
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For the Total full time workers:
In 2020 the Z-Score was around 4.
In 2021 the Z-Score was around 8.
In 2022 the Z-Score was around 14.
In 2023 the Z-Score was around 6.
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Absence rates from illness and injury deviated successively further from trend in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
In 2023 the deviation from trend reverted towards the 2010-2019 trend, albeit still being an extreme deviation from trend.
Absence Rates from injury and illness, 16 and older, % change from 2019 value
This section analyses the changes in the absence rates from its 2019 value. We compute the changes (in percentage) in absence rates for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, relative to 2019. This method of computing changes in absence rates has an advantage of being simpler to unserstand and interpret than the deviation from the 2002-2019 trend that was discussed in the previous section. As absence rates has an almost monothonically declining trend from 2002 to 2019, taking 2019 as a reference level will likely underestimate the actual increases in absence rates that we observed in the previous section.
Total (Men + Women) Absence Rates in 2020,2021,2022 and 2023, % change from 2019 value.
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Absence rates from illness and injury grew in each consecutive year from 2020 to 2022.
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In 2022 absence rates from injury and illness were 38.6% higher expected, an extraordinary change, which represents a large economic loss of productivity.
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In 2023 absence rates from illness and injury dropped but were still 10.5% above expected, at a level similar to the one observed in 2020.
Conclusions
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Absence rates from illness and injury for Men and Woman increased in each successive year from 2019 to 2022.
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In 2023 absence rates from illness and injury dropped slightly but were still at levels observed in 2020.
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The largest rise in absence rates was in 2022 at 38.6% higher than in 2019, which occurred after the main impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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In absolute terms, for individuals aged 16 and over, absence rates due to illness or injury rose from about 1.9% in 2019 to 2.6% in 2022 and in 2023 dropped to 2.1%, a rate similar to observed in 2020.
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Taken in conjunction with the increase in disability rates since early 2021, which we’ve shown here and here, we believe that the most likely cause for the rise in absence levels was the impact of the mass Covid-19 vaccinations.
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