The raw data is based upon weekly deaths data from Eurostat spanning from 2010 to 2022. For some countries (such as Germany) the data is limited to selected age groups so it will not be used in the correlation analysis.
The computed excess mortality is based upon our excess mortality analysis using method 2C as described in the methodology reports. The quarterly excess mortality for each country and age group can be found in the quarterly excess mortality analysis page.
Countries: AT, BE, BG, CZ, DK, EL (Greece), ES, FR, IT, HU, NL, PL, PT, RO, FI, SE, NO.
Source for Weekly Deaths (Eurostat): Eurostat table: Deaths by week, sex and 5-year age group.
Source for Vaccination data: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
Source for Population Estimates (Eurostat and UN): Eurostat table: Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection.
This page shows the correlation analysis of annualised quarterly excess mortality as a function of total vaccination doses received for different European countries, for different population age groups.
It allows individuals, researchers and institutions to visualise the data, and make their own conclusions based upon what they view. Each of the interactive charts attempts to capture different aspects of the observed excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic years and in this particular case, relate it to the total number of vaccine doses received (as a percentage of the population).
All the data is downloadable and the original data sources, as well as methodologies to analyse the data, are provided. We will endeavour to update our servers as new data becomes available.
The following charts show the analysis of the relationship between annualised excess mortality for different quarters of 2022 (Q1 to Q4) and the total vaccine doses, for different age groups in the selected sample of European countries. The Covid-19 vaccinations data refers to the total accumulated doses until the last available datapoint in 2022, as a percentage of the respective age group population, for each country.
Definite conclusions regarding the results shown below need to be taken with caution, as there are several variables that might have contributed to excess deaths during this period of time. One such factor is the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic over time, which appears to have been different in countries from Western Europe (Italy, France, Spain) relative to Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Czechia), with other countries falling in between (such as Hungary and Greece).
Eastern European countries appear to have suffered the brunt of the Covid-19 pandemic deaths in 2021, while the Western European countries seem to have been most affected in 2020 and early 2021. From our observations, it appears that for the Western European countries, from Q2-2021 the virus had become endemic and was possibly not responsible for significant excess mortality since then.
Another confounder is that Western European countries have very high vaccination levels for almost all age groups, while Eastern European countries have lower vaccination levels, particularly in younger populations.
It is therefore difficult to devise a single metric that could show a clear relationship between the vaccine penetration level in the population and excess mortality, when comparing different countries. We believe that the best measures are those that somehow avoid the brunt of the Covid-19 pandemic. For this we suggest:
1 - Monitoring the relationship between excess mortality and vaccine penetration for different countries, from 2022 onwards. Note that in the first quarter of 2022, Covid-19 was still impacting significantly the Eastern European countries.
2 - Comparing quarters that seasonally are less prone to have Covid-19 outbreaks (such as Q2 and Q3 in the Northern Hemisphere).
As previously mentioned, this page is dedicated to showing the correlation between quarterly excess mortality and vaccine penetration levels in 2022. For viewing the yearly correlation for 2022, go to yearly correlation analysis.
The following charts show the country comparison of excess mortality for different quarters in 2022, for the different age groups. The user can select the desired quarter and age group.
The chart on the left shows the annualised excess mortality for the selected quarter, for each of the European countries in the sample. The chart on the right shows the correlation between excess deaths and covid-19 vaccinations levels.The Covid-19 vaccinations data (x-axis) refers to the total accumulated doses for 2021 and 2022, as a percentage of the respective age group population.
As previously mentioned, there are several confounding factors that could influence excess mortality in the different European countries. Additionally, natural noise in data sample of weekly deaths (due for instance to different patterns in seasonal flu) can lead to noise in the calculation of the baseline from which excess deaths were computed. Therefore, caution needs to be applied when making definite conclusions regarding the correlations shown in the charts above.
When analysing the charts above for Q2 and Q3 of 2022, we can observe that the slope coefficient of the regression is positive for most age groups indicating that excess mortality is higher for countries with higher vaccination rates.
Q4 of 2022 does not have enough data yet. We will perform the analysis once data is available from the source.
For Q1 of 2022, we can observe that the regression slope is negative for age groups 60 and above, indicating that these age groups could have benefited from the vaccinations, at that time. However, a closer analysis of the regression data in Q1-2022 shows that the results are highly biased from the datapoints from Bulgaria, Greece and Romania, where Covid-19 was still having a significant impact.
We believe that the regressions for Q2-2022 and Q3-2022 are a more reliable measure of any residual adverse effects due to the mass inoculations, as Covid-19 was less of an issue. Furthermore, we believe that data for excess mortality in 2023 will provide us clarification of these effects.