Anticipate Economic Changes
|
Report Date |
October 2023 |
|
ECI Composite 12m |
-1.03 |
This month’s 12m ECI reading of -1.03 points to the continuation of the recovery of our 12m ECI. Our ECI readings in the last 6 months show a significant improvement from their Apr-2023 lows, which could mean that our indicators have already bottomed out, and the expected recession will be of limited scope. At the current moment, the severity (length and depth) of the coming downturn is now looking to be of similar severity to the 2001 recession in the US.
However, high interest rates, China’s housing bust and geopolitical conflicts, remain as significant risks to the US and global economy.
Next ECI report release date: 3-November-2023