This part of the V-damage project estimates the direct economic cost from the mass Covid-19 inoculations on individuals. For this purpose, we use the numbers that were outlined in the human cost section and then compute only the direct amount of wages and salaries that were lost due to injuries (chronically sick), disabilities and excess deaths.
In simple terms, our approach to estimate the economic cost in 2022, is to multiply the total of salaries and wages in US population by the estimated excess deaths (for example) in 2022. We therefore obtain the yearly estimate of "lost productivity" due to excess mortality. We perform the same calculations for disabilities and lost worktime.
The total dollar amount for employees' wages and salaries can be viewed in the following data series at the St. Louis Fed FRED:
Series A4102C1Q027SBEA: Gross domestic income: Compensation of employees, paid: Wages and salaries, which has quarterly values (annualised). We can observe that the latest values for 2022 are: - Q1-2022 was $10.939 Tn
2 - Injuries - Mild to moderate outcomes.
For injuries we use the absolute excess lost worktime rates in 2022 (deviation from trend) to estimate the economic cost in terms of lost productivity. The deviation from trend in lost worktime rates from illness or injury was around 0.8% for 2022, which multiplied by the total amount of salaries and wages yields the lost productivity to the economy. This measure is conservative as it does not depict other forms of productivity loss such as tasks that were performed to a lower level due to loss of concentration or other neurological issues.
The direct economic cost from the rise in lost worktime rates is:
0.8% * $11.238 Tn = $89.9 Bn
This cost is could be ameliorated in the coming years, by treatment that address the impact of the Covid-19 inoculations and wider awareness to the problem.
3 - Disabilities - Severe outcome.
For disabilities we use the absolute rise in disabilities since 2021, which was 0.93% for the 16-64 year-old Civilian Labor Force, to estimate the economic cost in terms of lost productivity. We then divide the obtained cost by 2 as we assume that, on average, each disabled individual is still capable of performing half a normal person's work.
The direct economic cost from the rise in disabilities is:
0.93% * $11.238 Tn / 2 = $52.2 Bn
This cost is expected to be ongoing in the coming years, as these individuals are likely to have a permanent disability.
4 - Deaths - Extreme outcome.
For deaths we use the average yearly absolute rise in excess deaths since 2021, which was 0.05% for the 25-64 year-old population, to estimate the economic cost in terms of lost productivity.
The direct economic cost from the rise in excess deaths is:
0.05% * $11.238 Tn = $5.6 Bn
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